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As usual, next year will see the reelection of about a third of the Senate (in this case 34 seats). Last year, the vast majority of the seats up for reelection were held by Democrats, which is what made their wresting control of the Senate from the Republican party so amazing. Next year, the tables are turned. While Republicans will have 22 seats up for reelection, Democrats will have only 12. Furthermore, the RSCC, which is responsible for Senate fundraising and recruiting, is performing dismally at both.
Democratic Seats
Democrats are up for reelection in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Most of those seats are held by Senate leadership or institutions like Carl Levin in Michigan or Dick Durbin in Illinois. None of those seats are open as a result of retirements. In fact, of those 12 seats, only two are considered to be in any real danger: Louisiana and South Dakota.
Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu has won close victories in her two campaigns, taking only 52% in 2002. Louisiana as a whole has been bucking the nationwide trend and growing Republican in recent years. Furthermore, Hurricane Katrina has changed the demographics of the state, driving away many Democratic voters. Republicans have had recruiting difficulties, but seem to have settled on State Treasurer Kennedy, who just switched parties in preparation for the race. Landrieu is still favored, but she is vulnerable.
In South Dakota, of course, Sen. Tim Johnson is a Democrat in a deep red state. Unfortunately for Republican electoral prospects, Tim Johnson's recovery from brain surgery has prevented them from engaging in any real politicking. As of now, they have no candidate, Tim Johnson has returned to work, and his Senate colleagues are helping with his fundraising. Again, Johnson is currently favored, but the right candidate (such as Governor Mike Rounds) could put this seat in jeopardy.
As usual, Republicans will probably think they can take the New Jersey seat, but will fail miserably. As much as New Jersians hate their Democratic politicians, they hate Republicans more.
Republican Seats
Republicans have seats up for reelection in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wyoming (x2). Seven of those are serious pickup opportunities for Democrats, and another half-dozen or more have serious potential.
Strong Pickup Opportunities
Colorado is an open seat in a state that is strongly trending blue. The popular Rep. Mark Udall is the wide favorite (and has been effectively running for this seat since 2004), as the Republican candidate Bob Schaffer is not running a coherent campaign (he has even tried to take back his candidacy announcement). This is widely regarded as the most likely seat to change parties next year.
Maine currently has two Republican senators considered moderates: Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Susan Collins, however, is much less moderate than she wants you to think. She is a staunch supporter of the Iraq war (which is very unpopular in Maine), and her Democratic opponent Tom Allen is popular and currently represents half of the state in the House. Furthermore, Collins is breaking a promise to serve only two terms. This race isn't in the bag, but Allen is running a strong campaign, and Republicans are growing very unpopular. Collins is likely to be the Lincoln Chafee of 2008.
Sen. Norm Coleman won his seat in Minnesota when wildly popular Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash two weeks before the election. Former Vice President Walter Mondale stepped in to try to take Wellstone's place, but a Republican media blitz and the late entry gave Coleman the seat. Now Coleman will be fighting for his political life against one of two Democrats, one of whom is comedian Al Franken. Coleman is trying to paint himself as a moderate, but he has actually been a staunch supporter of Bush, which will hurt him in a state that elected a Democrat to the Senate last year by a 20% margin.
Nebraska. Yep, Nebraska. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, possibly before some of you read this, leaving this an open seat. Popular Democratic former Governor and Senator Bob Kerry is reportedly chomping at the bit to get in this race if Hagel retires, and if he does he is the immediate favorite to win. If he doesn't, DSCC chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be heavily lobbying Omaha mayor Mike Fahey to jump in the race. Fahey could still win, but it would be much more difficult than if Kerry ran.
New Hampshire took a sharp Democratic turn last year, giving Democrats control of both House seats and both chambers of the state legislature, and reelecting a Democratic governor. Sununu is in deep trouble regardless, but if former Governor Jeane Shaheen gets in the race as expected, Sununu might as well pack his bags. He's 20% behind her in the polls without her even declaring.
In Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith is another Republican in a blue state. He's tried to paint himself as a moderate, but has been a strong supporter of Bush up until his recent election year run to the middle. The likely Democratic challenger (once the primary is over) is current Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkely, who is well-known in the state. Similar to Collins in Maine, Smith faces the Lincoln Chafee problem of being a Republican in a Democratic state when people hate Republicans. A third candidate, former NEA chair John Frohnmayer seems likely to jump in the race as an independent, but it is as yet unclear who he will hurt more.
And lastly, Virginia. Popular Senator John Warner recently announced that he will not run for reelection next year, setting up a titanic battle over Virginia's political future. Virginia has been trending blue over the past few years due to population growth in the urban centers in the north of the state. Virginia has now elected two Democratic governors in a row, is likely to give Democrats control of at least one chamber of the legislature this year, and most notably elected Jim Webb to the Senate last year over incumbent and noted racist George 'Macaca' Allen. Former Governor Mark Warner (no relation) is going to announce whether he will run for this seat or wait to run for Governor again sometime this week. If he runs, he wins. If he doesn't, this seat drops way down on the list of possible pickups (though not all the way off). Warner would reportedly prefer to be Governor, but still has his eye on the Presidency and as a result is being advised to run for the Senate to gain foreign policy experience. The expectation is that he will run.
Other Possible Pickups
I won't go into too much detail on these because I'm tired of writing, but here we go...
Alaska , Idaho, and New Mexico all have Senators beset by scandal. Idaho has a challenger, and Alaska and New Mexico need one. Don't expect any to flip control necessarily without significant changes, but they are races to watch.
In Kentucky, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not terribly popular and is being targeted by Democrats eager to get revenge for Tom Daschle's ouster in 2004. He is vulnerable to the right candidate.
In North Carolina, Libby Dole's star has fallen, and just needs a strong challenger to take her out. Unfortunately, the top Democratic prospects in this state have passed on the race, keeping it from top tier status. This could easily change.
Tennessee and Texas both have incumbents with uncomfortable approval ratings, particularly Cornyn in Texas. Cornyn has 2 Democrats in a primary for the privilege to take him on, while Alexander in Tennessee has none as of yet. Both seats to keep an eye on.
The remainder of the Republican seats are likely safe, but that could change in a political environment that continues to sour against them.
In Conclusion...
Basically 2008 looks like a dismal year for Republican Senate prospects. There are really only 2 seats where they have any hope of making gains, and many in which they are vulnerable. The RSCC is lagging badly in fundraising, prompting RSCC chair John Ensign (R-NV) to ask the RNC for money in a cycle when the RNC is supposed to be funding the Presidential nominee. Furthermore, Republicans are going to be forced to spend money playing defense in what should be reliably red states like Idaho and Texas. Republicans publicly anticipate a four-seat loss next year, and that's their optimistic appraisal. It isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility than January 2009 will see a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate.
-David Kleppinger, Morons.org Legislative Analyst
