Mukasey

Through most of last week, it was looking like Michael Mukasey's nomination to Attorney General was on the rocks. His inability to answer the fairly straightforward question of whether a torture technique which dates back to the Spanish Inquisition and which was prosecuted as a war crime after World War II is torture led many leading Senate Democrats to speak out in opposition to his nomination. Unfortunately, on Friday two key Democrats announced their intentions to vote for him, essentially calling him the best of a myriad evils. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) are two members of the Senate Judiciary committee, which tomorrow will vote on whether to recommend Mukasey's nomination to the full Senate. With their 'aye' votes, Mukasey's confirmation is almost assured, as Democrats would be hard-pressed to come up with enough votes in the full Senate to block him.

Senate '08 Outlook

A number of new polls have given us a reasonable picture of Senate races which are sure to be hotly contested next year.

Roll Call commissioned SurveyUSA to poll Senate races in New Hampshire, Maine, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Oregon, all GOP-held seats. The bottom line is that currently Virginia is a walk for former Governor Mark Warner (D), New Hampshire is strongly in favor of former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), and Colorado is leaning in Rep. Mark Udall's (D-CO2) favor. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is in a tie with either of his potential opponents (Mike Ciresi and Al Franken), and is below the 50% mark, putting him in dangerous territory for an incumbent. Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) is in better shape against his opponents, but is also below 50% and his potential opponents are not well-known. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), is currently 17 points up on her opponent, Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME1), making this race look less competitive than it initially seemed.

The complicated race is New Mexico, where matters have not had time to settle down after long-time Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement. The poll looks at 8 potential matchups, half of which are against Governor Bill Richardson (D), who has expressed no interest in the race, and Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), who just withdrew from the race. The poll numbers show that this is an extremely competitive race, with some of those Democrats beating both Republicans and some losing to both. Popular House Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM3), cousin to Mark Udall of Colorado, had initially declined to run, but is now reconsidering and will make an announcement in 2 weeks. If he enters, he will likely be the presumptive favorite.

Lastly, Rasmussen has polled a couple of potential Senate matchups in Kentucky against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The result? McConnell is vulnerable. Though his job approval remains above 50%, he does not break 50% when pitched against either of the two opponents Rasmussen polled. Ads have already been run against McConnell, and Democrats will likely have substantial momentum in the state after tomorrow, when Democrat Steve Beshear is expected to trounce Republican Ernie Fletcher in the Governor's race. The bottom line is that this race is not currently strongly competitive, but it has been on hold pending tomorrow's elections. Expect more movement in this race over the next couple weeks, and expect McConnell to have to fight hard to retain his seat.

-David Kleppinger, Morons.org Legislative Analyst

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