Iraq

Today the administration released a fact sheet declaring "Principles for Friendship and Cooperation" between the US and Iraqi governments. Included among these principles is that the US will "provide security assurances to the Iraqi Government to deter any external aggression and to ensure the integrity of Iraq's territory." Essentially, the document lays the groundwork for a long-term US military presence in Iraq without actually signing a treaty, which would require the ratification of Congress. Looks like all those crazy people who thought the administration was lying when it said we would have no permanent bases in Iraq were right after all. Bush's goal here, obviously, is to try and sharply constrain the options of the next President with regards to Iraq, and to keep us in that quagmire as long as possible.

Meanwhile, the administration is moving the goalposts in Iraq again. This time they're being placed right where we already are. Now our goals are to see a $48 billion budget passed by the Iraqi government (which they were already doing), renewal of the UN mandate that authorizes US troop presence in Iraq (which has already been achieved multiple times before), and the passage of legislation which would allow the government to hire Baath Party members (which, again, has already been happening, albeit quietly). So you see, we're succeeding! All we need is another 6 months....

Another Senate Retirement

Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott (R-MS) today announced that he will resign from the Senate by the end of the year. Lott, who five years ago lost serious standing after making racist statements at a party for Strom Thurmond, was originally going to retire last year, but decided to run for reelection anyway and experienced a sort of revival by becoming Minority Whip (the second ranking Republican in the Senate). So why such an abrupt resignation? Legislation passed by Congress this year extends the ban on former members of Congress lobbying Congress from one year to two years after leaving office. By resigning before the end of the year, Lott can escape that longer ban, allowing him to get on the K Street gravy train a year sooner.

This creates a serious problem for the GOP, which had just been breathing a sigh of relief that Mississippi's other Senator, Thad Cochran (R), announced his intention to not retire and instead run for reelection next year. Lott will have a replacement appointed by Mississippi's Governor (a Republican), until a special election can be held. Governor Haley Barbour (R) wants to hold that election on Election Day next year, when the Presidential race will increase voter turnout and make it easier for the GOP to hold the seat. But Mississippi state law requires that if the resignation in question happens during a non-election year, the special election must happen within 100 days of the resignation. With Lott planning to resign before the end of the year, it looks like Gov. Barbour may be headed to the courts to try and get his chosen date.

So how are Democratic chances for taking the seat? It will obviously be easier without a Presidential race upticket, but who are the people who might contest the seat? It turns out Democrats have two strong potential candidates: former Governor Ronnie Musgrove has expressed interest in running for the seat, and popular former Attorney General Mike Moore was thinking of running for Cochran's seat if he had retired. Either of those two would stand a good chance of winning this seat, particularly if the election is held in the spring, when lower turnout will blunt the Republican registration edge in the state.

-David Kleppinger, Morons.org Legislative Analyst