Iowa

Unless you've been hiding under a rock for a month, you're probably aware that the Iowa caucuses are tonight, being the first step on the road to the Presidential election this November. On this evening, approximately 10% of Iowans will crowd into small rooms to effectively decide who the two parties will nominate to run for the Presidency in the general election. Republicans will decide with a relatively straightforward secret ballot-based process, while Democrats will employ a complex and byzantine caucusing system which if you fully understand it makes you a better man than I. The important thing to keep in mind is that the second choices of caucusers who support minor candidates can be important, as those caucusers will get to change their vote when and if their first choice gets eliminated.

So who will win? No one knows. On both sides there is a very close tie between the top few contenders, and different things can constitute "winning" in Iowa depending on the candidate. For example, John McCain is very very doubtful to take first in tonight's contest, but would likely count a strong third place showing as a "win" because of the momentum it would give him in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

So on the Democratic side, you have Clinton, Edwards, and Obama pretty much all tied up. What will likely clinch that side of the events is who Bill Richardson will direct his people to support. As Richardson is likely to only garner in the high single digits or low teens, he will probably be eliminated. If he were to direct his supporters to any of the top 3 in the next round, that candidate would almost certainly win. It's a lot of power to be placed in the hands of one man. I hope he doesn't mess it up.

On the Republican side, Romney and Huckabee are in a close race to be the candidate Republican voters in Iowa hate the least. Whoopee! Again, it's too close here to call and we're only going to know who wins when the results come out. Two things to look for are if McCain manages his strong third place, and if Ron Paul manages to shock the beltway with a very strong finish.

Frankly, as excited as I am for tonight, I have a fair amount of disdain for the primary process. Iowa and New Hampshire's stranglehold on the nomination process disenfranchises most of the rest of the country. Because of the tendency of people to vote for a winner, it is extremely rare for someone to win these first two states and then go on to lose the nomination. This is why you've seen the race to frontload the primary calender this cycle, with Michigan and Florida even being threatened with the stripping of their convention delegates by the Democratic National Committee for violating party rules. Hopefully this cycle will drive home the need for a more fair primary process and we'll see significant change in 2012.

The caucuses have started as I type this, so I don't have any results now, but I will update this article as I get more information. I currently intend to stay up until we have results, but we'll have to see how long it goes.

UPDATE: TPM is keeping running results, which are starting to come in. Still too early to call anything.

UPDATE: On the Republican side, it looks like Huckabee is creaming Romney, with Thompson in third.

UPDATE: With about half the precincts reporting, the Democratic side is Obama - Edwards - Clinton, but the margins are so close that it's still anybody's game. Personally at this point I'm expecting Obama to hold his lead, but I could still easily be proven wrong.

UPDATE: This will be my last update for the evening. With 1764 of 1781 precincts reporting, Obama wins with 37.54%, followed by Edwards (29.81%) and Clinton (29.44%). Biden, Dodd, and Gravel have dropped out. On the Republican side, McCain and Thompson are still battling for 3rd with between 13% and 14% each. Huckabee took first with 34% to Romney's 25%. Turnout on the Democratic side was ridiculous, with 236,000 people showing up to caucus, compared with only 124,000 in 2004. Reportedly, 57% of Obama's votes came from people aged 17-29, which means that young voters turned up in droves. Right now I expect Obama to run the table, while Romney fades and the Republican race comes down to McCain vs. Huckabee. I'm looking forward to the rest of the season.

-David Kleppinger, Morons.org Legislative Analyst