Today 24 states are holding contests of various kinds to determine the respective party nominees. On the Democratic side are Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, while the Republicans include John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee. While no candidate is expected to achieve a majority of delegates today on either party, the conventional wisdom is that McCain will largely wrap up the nomination for the Republican party once the dust has settled. On the other side, no one expects the Democratic contests to decide anything, as Obama and Clinton are just too close.

McCain is leading most places around the country, but Romney has been moving up in California and is threatening to win there. If he did, the winner-takes-all nature of most Republican primaries would give him a serious boost and allow his campaign to continue. Without winning a substantial number of delegates such as a win in California would give him, Romney is likely to drop out of the race before too much longer.

On the Democratic side, Obama has been moving up rapidly in the polls, coming from 20 points behind nationally a couple weeks ago to a statistical tie with Clinton in the past couple days. What was looking like it would be a big victory for Clinton is now looking like only a minor win, and that is ultimately a loss for her. The Obama camp had been expecting to win fewer delegates and states than Clinton in the Super Tuesday states, which are more favorable for Clinton. As long as they could stay within a few hundred delegates, however, the remainder of the month is more favorable for Obama with contests in states like Nebraska, Louisiana, and Virginia.

But with the polls the way they now are, Barack Obama stands a chance of coming very close in states like Massachusetts and New Jersey (both in the New York media market), and possibly even winning in California. Though the proportional delegate assignment in Democratic primaries reduces the impact of a minor win in terms of delegates, the headlines and momentum the Obama campaign would get from a win in California would come as a bad hit to the Clinton campaign.

Ultimately though, the polls are close and have large numbers of undecideds, so we won't know who wins what until the after the polls close. I'll be updating as the night goes on, assuming the installation of my new video card goes well.

Incidentally, there are some results in already. Barack Obama has won among Democrats abroad in Indonesia, and Mike Huckabee has won the Republican convention in West Virginia.

-David Kleppinger, Morons.org Legislative Analyst

UPDATE 3:25PM: I have succeeded in installing my video card. Updates will be made throughout the night as planned.

UPDATE 7:00PM: The polls have just closed in Georgia and MSNBC has already called it for Obama on the Democratic side, no call on the Republican side. TPM has some exit polls, but take them with a grain of salt.

UPDATE 8:00PM: Polls closing. Obama and McCain in Illinois, Clinton in Oklahoma. Romney in Massachusetts, McCain in Connecticut. Updates will be brief from this point unless I have something specific to say due to the vast amount of information starting to come in.

UPDATE 8:08PM: MSNBC calls New Jersey for McCain.

UPDATE 8:12PM: MSNBC has retracted their call of OK for Clinton.

UPDATE 8:16PM: MSNBC calls Tennessee for Clinton.

UPDATE 8:30PM: Clinton and Huckabee win in Arkansas, and apparently Oklahoma has been re-called for Clinton.

UPDATE 8:49PM: Was hoping to group this with another development, but nothing has happened and more polls close soon. McCain is projected to win Delaware.

UPDATE 8:57PM: Huckabee in Alabama, and in what may be a disappointment for Obama, MSNBC has called Massachusetts for Clinton.

UPDATE 9:04PM: Clinton in New York, McCain in Illinois, and Obama in Deleware.

UPDATE 9:25PM: Obama in Alabama, McCain in New York.

UPDATE 9:31PM: Hillary in New Jersey. She seems to be outperforming exit polls in the states in the northeast at least, which is probably a bit disappointing to the Obama camp. Late polls were suggesting he might be able to squeak out wins in those states. Still, he'll be happy if it's even close.

UPDATE 10:01PM: Obama in North Dakota and Utah, McCain in Oklahoma, Romney has won Utah, and Chris Matthews has made a good point tonight, which is that the states McCain has won are largely strong Democratic states like New Jersey and New York. It may not be a good sign for his candidacy if the only places he can win are those that will never vote for him in the general election.

UPDATE 10:09PM: It's worth noting that Obama is winning similar states to McCain, which is to say states which aren't going to vote for him in the general. I don't really know what this means. It could mean that the candidates are capable of drawing support in enemy territory, or it could mean they are unable to muster support in friendly territory, or it could mean nothing. I think it would be more likely to mean good things for the candidate better able to mobilize supporters, but that candidate already has an advantage.

UPDATE 10:17PM: Kansas for Obama. Another thing I'm noticing is that a lot of these victories seem to be of substantial size, greater than 10% margins. I don't know if that's just because the easiest to call states get called first or what. Certainly Massachusetts and New Jersey are much more disparate than recent polling (and exit polling) had suggested they would be.

UPDATE 10:27PM: Connecticut for Obama, in what will surely be a balm for his campaign after the losses in New Jersey and Massachusetts.

UPDATE 10:49PM: Huckabee in Georgia and Obama in Minnesota. California polls close in another 10 minutes, and that's going to be the big one.

UPDATE 11:01PM: Idaho for Obama, Arizona for McCain. Obama's camp is currently claiming a delegate lead. I don't want to do the math to check that. Anyone else?

UPDATE 11:14PM: Minnesota and North Dakota for Romney, Arizona for Clinton. Following up on a point Markos Moulitsas made, this makes the first state Clinton has won that is not in the Arkansas or New York media markets.

UPDATE 11:35PM: I'm going to go ahead and call Idaho for Obama.

UPDATE 11:45PM: Obama gets Colorado. California isn't looking very good for him right now, but it looks like he may actually come out of tonight with more states.

UPDATE 12:00AM: Huckabee gets Tennessee and Romney gets Colorado.

UPDATE 12:13AM: Hillary and McCain win California, and it looks like Hillary will get New Mexico and Obama will take Alaska. Missouri is extremely close, but I think Obama will pull it out. Romney gets Montana. Missouri goes to McCain. Overall, Hillary managed to win most of the states she was expected to before the speculation of Obama's momentum starting creating perhaps unrealistic expectations. On the other hand, Obama was expected to really only win about 9 states, but it looks like he may actually get 13 of them. I'd have to say this was a bigger night for Obama than it may get played as given the loss in California, particularly considering that the remainder of the month consists of states that will be strong for him. The Clinton camp fought hard and can breath a sigh of relief tonight, but they still have a race on their hands. This contest is by no means over. On the Republican side, McCain is definitely having a big night, and will probably wrap up the nomination before too many more states vote.

UPDATE 12:41AM: Missouri called for Obama and Colorado for Romney.

UPDATE 12:57AM: Ok, this will be my last update unless we actually get news from New Mexico (which has apparently had some problems or something). The final state tally for the Democrats is Obama 13, HIllary 8 with New Mexico still up for grabs. John McCain won 9 states, Romney 6, and Huckabee 5. The delegate counts on the Democratic side are probably going to come down to a flat out tie, while McCain will take a big lead. I would expect Romney to drop out of the race soon, given Huckabee's stealing of all of his votes in southern states today. All in all, I would say tonight's big victors are Obama, McCain, and Huckabee. Hillary is not going to lose much from Obama's performance, but Romney is going to be devastated. While the HIllary camp is going to spin up their win in California and claim they weren't favored there or in Massachusetts (they were), the fact is that Obama was the underdog going into today and managed to surprisingly win more states. With the remainder of February looking strong for Obama and with him vastly outraising Clinton, he is in a strong position going forward. I'd give more of an analysis of the Republican side, but I don't understand that race as well and I'm quite tired at this point. Good night folks!