Today voters head to the polls in North Carolina and Indiana, with almost half of the remaining pledged delegates up for grabs (187 out of 404). After tonight, there will be more undeclared superdelegates than remaining pledged delegates, so the focus of the campaigns will likely shift accordingly. In addition, there are almost no primaries left after tonight where the outcome is in serious doubt. Obama has had almost nothing but negative press coverage in recent weeks, but the past week has seen him start to try to get back on his feet and polling is starting to suggest he's recovering. That said, in almost every contest prior to tonight late-breaking undecideds have gone to Clinton, giving her an extra push in many close contests.

So what can we expect tonight? Early polling in North Carolina had shown Obama with 20-point leads, but weeks of horrible press coverage has shrunk that margin significantly. Now most polls are giving Obama a lead in the high single-digits. North Carolina is a good state for him. It has a high black population (I've seen estimates that African Americans could make up 40% of the electorate), and the growing Research Triangle of Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill features a high proportion of the more educated and wealthier voters that have made up a substantial part of Obama's coalition. Because of that, I expect the white vote in North Carolina to be more like that in Virginia than in South Carolina, and I expect Obama to outperform the polls and get a double-digit win.

Indiana is another matter. Polling there has been tighter, suggesting a Clinton victory in the low-to-mid single-digits. Indiana is next door to Obama's home state of Illinois, but Clinton has spent the weeks since she tried to convince Pennsylvanians that she was from Scranton reminding Indianans that she was born and grew up near Chicago. Indiana is another rust belt state, and that is expected to give Clinton similar advantages to what she had in Ohio and Pennsylvania. That said, Obama has mayoral (and hence machine) support in a number of large cities in the state, and turnout in the Obama stronghold of Marion County in Indianapolis has apparently been extremely high. If turnout in Obama strongholds like that is disproportionately high compared to the rest of the state, that could help him make up some ground. I'm expecting a Clinton win in the high single-digits in Indiana, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the actual margin was larger or smaller than that.

Ultimately, barring some huge surprise like the elderly abandoning Clinton or African Americans abandoning Obama, the math is not likely to change much. Because North Carolina has more delegates than Indiana (and most Indiana districts have even numbers of delegates), Obama will probably add slightly to his delegate lead, and will also likely add a few tens of thousands to his popular vote lead. While a split-decision will allow Clinton to stay in the race, anything that doesn't have Obama losing both states is a win for him, because it makes it that much harder for Clinton to make up ground. She already needs 62% of the remaining delegates (pledged and super) in order to get the nomination, and an even split tonight would up that figure to 66%. It's already basically impossible for her to retake the pledged delegate lead, so it's clearer than ever that her only hope to get the nomination is coup-by-superdelegate.

Polls close at 7PM ET in Indiana, and 7:30PM ET in North Carolina. As usual, I'll update throughout the night as results come in.

-David Kleppinger, Morons.org Legislative Analyst

UPDATE 7:27PM: With 16% reporting, Clinton is winning in Indiana 57-43, but that has to be taken with a grain of salt. There have as yet been no reports from Indianapolis or Gary, cities which are expected to go strongly for Obama. CNN's exits suggest a 4-point Clinton win, but exit polls have consistently favored Obama over the duration of the campaign, so that should also not be given too much weight.

UPDATE 7:30PM: MSNBC has called North Carolina for Obama almost immediately, which suggests a strong victory for him. We'll have to see what the exits and initial results say.

UPDATE 7:35PM: CNN's exits suggest a 10-point win for Obama in North Carolina, with the same caveats as above. Black voters made up about a third of the electorate, which Obama won by about 92%.

UPDATE 8:21PM: CBS has apparently called Indiana for Clinton, but the other networks are as yet holding back.

UPDATE 8:33PM: Clinton's margin in Indiana is starting to shrink. With 52% reporting, her lead is down to 8 points. Meanwhile, with 14% in from North Carolina, Obama is up 63-35. I can't imagine that margin is going to hold, but it definitely suggests a strong victory for him.

UPDATE 8:45PM: I just went through CNN's exits for both states to find the percentage of spoiler voters: voters who voted for Obama or Clinton, but plan to vote for McCain in the fall over their chosen Democrat. In Indiana, 2.28% of the electorate was Obama spoilers, and 6.97% of the electorate was Clinton spoilers. In North Carolina, 1.9% of the electorate was Obama spoilers and 6.75% Clinton spoilers. It looks like Rush Limbaugh may actually be having an effect this time.

UPDATE 10:05PM: CBS definitely called Indiana way too soon. Indiana is now only 52-48 for Clinton, with Gary Indiana yet to report anything. Gary is expected to be strong for Obama, and it's looking possible that Obama could actually win Indiana and sweep the night. Meanwhile, Obama's lead in North Carolina is still holding strong at 56-42 with 70% reporting. Tonight has been very bad for Clinton.

UPDATE 12:07AM: Indiana is a nailbiter. Still 72% of precincts from Lake County (Gary) left to report, but it's so far going 75-25 for Obama. Parts of the county will apparently be more favorable for Clinton, but the state is going to be won by a razor thin margin. Meanwhile, with 99% in, Obama has won North Carolina by 14%, picking up over 200,000 in the popular vote and erasing any gains Clinton made in Pennsylvania. This race may have just ended tonight.

UPDATE 1:10AM: MSNBC has called Indiana for Clinton. With 99% reporting, she is winning by 1.7%, or around a 22k vote margin. Obama definitely bounced back over the past week, making up several percentage points in both states in the past few days (going by the polls). Word is that Clinton has canceled all of her appearances tomorrow, we'll have to see what the superdelegates do now. Indiana was a victory for Clinton, but only by the slightest of margins, and Obama has shown that he can deal with issues like Wright and come back strong. Tonight overall was a resounding victory for Barack Obama.